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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
2 – 3
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
7/12/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh39%
×Draw29%
Baderan Tehran32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15
Baderan Tehran
1.02

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 13% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 51 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
68%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Baderan Tehran
71%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
61%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
16%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
68%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
32%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
11%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
64%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
27%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
55%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
39%
level
29%
Baderan Tehran scores more
32%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Baderan Tehran

Baderan Tehran beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3-2 in Azadegan League on July 12, 2020.

The match was played at Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium in Saveh.