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Baderan Tehran vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
1 – 0
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
11/10/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Baderan Tehran45%
×Draw30%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.19
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.80

Baderan Tehran creates 49% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.22
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.84
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
75%
Baderan Tehran or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
70%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
55%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
20%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
70%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
33%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
12%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
55%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
19%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
65%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
45%
level
30%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
25%

Baderan Tehran at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Baderan Tehran beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.