Park City Red Wolves 6–2 Colorado Rush

Park City Red Wolves

FT

6 – 2

Colorado Rush

6/20/2021

USL League Two · Round 32South Summit High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Park City Red Wolves52%

×Draw21%

Colorado Rush27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Park City Red WolvesExpected goals in this matchColorado Rush

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.48

Park City Red Wolves

2.13

Colorado Rush

1.48

Park City Red Wolves creates 44% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

1.94

creates per match

1.67

1.28

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Park City Red Wolves

1.94

Colorado Rush

1.67

allows per match

Park City Red Wolves

1.28

Colorado Rush

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Colorado Rush+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Park City Red Wolves ↓

Colorado Rush →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Park City Red Wolves or draw

73%

Park City Red Wolves or Colorado Rush

79%

Draw or Colorado Rush

48%

Winning margin

Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+

31%

Colorado Rush wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals

88%

Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals

63%

Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals

35%

Colorado Rush 1+ goals

77%

Colorado Rush 2+ goals

43%

Colorado Rush 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)

66%

Colorado Rush (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Park City Red Wolves at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Colorado Rush away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.94 + Colorado Rush defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Colorado Rush attack 1.67 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Park City Red Wolves scores more

52%

level

21%

Colorado Rush scores more

27%

Park City Red Wolves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff