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Colorado Rush vs Park City Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Colorado Rush
Colorado Rush
FT
1 – 1
Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
5/31/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 14Denver Christian High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colorado Rush49%
×Draw23%
Park City Red Wolves28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Rush
1.79
Park City Red Wolves
1.31

Colorado Rush creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

creates per match

Colorado Rush
2.00
Park City Red Wolves
1.86

allows per match

Colorado Rush
0.75
Park City Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Colorado Rush+0.00on par
Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rush ↓

Park City Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Colorado Rush or draw
72%
Colorado Rush or Park City Red Wolves
77%
Draw or Park City Red Wolves
51%

Winning margin

Colorado Rush wins by 2+
27%
Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colorado Rush 1+ goals
83%
Colorado Rush 2+ goals
53%
Colorado Rush 3+ goals
26%
Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
73%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
38%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rush (draw refunded)
63%
Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rush at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rush attack 2.00 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + Colorado Rush defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colorado Rush scores more
49%
level
23%
Park City Red Wolves scores more
28%

Colorado Rush at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colorado Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colorado Rush 1 – 1 Park City Red Wolves

Colorado Rush and Park City Red Wolves drew 1-1 in USL League Two on May 31, 2021.

The match was played at Denver Christian High School in Lakewood, Colorado.