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Paris Saint Germain W vs Nantes W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nantes W
Nantes W
J. Echegini 11'
5/7/2025Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 22Training Center Paris Saint Germain Terrain 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W73%
×Draw16%
Nantes W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain W
2.59
Nantes W
0.92

Paris Saint Germain W creates 182% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 23 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W
3.15
Nantes W
1.43

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W
0.41
Nantes W
2.04

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par
Nantes W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Nantes W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw
89%
Paris Saint Germain W or Nantes W
84%
Draw or Nantes W
27%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
51%
Nantes W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
92%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
73%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
47%
Nantes W 1+ goals
60%
Nantes W 2+ goals
23%
Nantes W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
87%
Nantes W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.41 · 86 matches

Nantes W away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.15 + Nantes W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.59

Nantes W attack 1.43 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more
73%
level
16%
Nantes W scores more
11%

Paris Saint Germain W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
J. EcheginiParis Saint Germain WParis Saint Germain W · M
8.3

Match Events

11'
J. Echegini↳ M. Kanjinga
38'
Jennifer EcheginiMissed penalty
45'
L. Storti← A. Ould Braham
46'
T. Elimbi Gilbert← S. Karchaoui
59'
M. Traoré← T. Samoura
59'
D. Marcano← C. Robillard
59'
M. Rogan← M. Uffren
66'
B. Benera← J. Echegini
67'
A. Diarra← M. Kanjinga
73'
E. Sumo← J. Mossard
73'
R. Éloissant← Andrea Recio
80'
P. Dudek← F. Brennskag-Dorsin
84'
Manssita Traoré
90+5'
Manja Rogan

Possession

61%Paris

Shots

21Paris

Pass accuracy

53%Paris

Statistics

ParisNantes
Overview
61%Possession39%
21Total Shots4
8Corners4
4Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots4
5On Target1
13Off Target1
3Blocked2
13Inside Box2
8Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
563Total Passes359
468Accurate Passes271
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
4Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Feminine Division 1: Paris Saint Germain W 1–0 Nantes W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Nantes W 1-0 in Feminine Division 1 on May 7, 2025.

Goals: J. Echegini (11').

Paris Saint Germain W controlled possession (61%) and registered 21 shots to 4.

The match was played at Training Center Paris Saint Germain Terrain 5 in Poissy.