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Nantes W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Nantes W
Nantes W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
Z. van de Ven 90'
S. Karchaoui 49'
R. Leuchter 23' (pen)
3/28/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 19Stade Marcel Saupin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nantes W20%
×Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes W
1.01
Paris Saint Germain W
1.88

Paris Saint Germain W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 88 away

creates per match

Nantes W
1.18
Paris Saint Germain W
2.61

allows per match

Nantes W
1.14
Paris Saint Germain W
0.84

finishing

Nantes W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nantes W or draw
42%
Nantes W or Paris Saint Germain W
78%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
80%

Winning margin

Nantes W wins by 2+
7%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Nantes W 1+ goals
64%
Nantes W 2+ goals
27%
Nantes W 3+ goals
8%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
85%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
56%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Nantes W (draw refunded)
26%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.61, concedes 0.84 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes W attack 1.18 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.61 + Nantes W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nantes W scores more
20%
level
22%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
58%

Paris Saint Germain W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
E. BurnsNantes WNantes W · G
8.3

Match Events

23'
R. LeuchterPenalty
32'
Mariam Toloba
49'
S. Karchaoui↳ J. Echegini
60'
L. Khelifi← I. Saoud
61'
R. Eloissaint← L. Calba
71'
Z. van de Ven← J. Machart-Rabanne
71'
R. Ajibade← S. Karchaoui
84'
J. Mossard← L. Fleury
84'
F. Jourde← Yaya
85'
T. Diakite← O. Carmona
87'
O. Graziani← J. Echegini
90+6'
Maureen Cosson
90+3'
Paulina Dudek
90+2'
Ornella Graziani
90'
Z. van de Ven

Possession

47%Nantes

Shots

19Nantes

Pass accuracy

49%Nantes

Statistics

NantesParis
Overview
47%Possession53%
19Total Shots20
8Corners1
12Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots20
10On Target10
5Off Target5
4Blocked5
11Inside Box14
8Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
365Total Passes426
270Accurate Passes334
74%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
8Saves9
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Nantes W vs Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Nantes W 2-1 in Feminine Division 1 on March 28, 2026.

Goals: R. Leuchter (23' pen), S. Karchaoui (49'), Z. van de Ven (90').

Paris Saint Germain W controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stade Marcel Saupin in Nantes.