Paris Saint Germain W 3–0 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Paris Saint Germain W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Häcken W

M. Katoto 74'

K. Albert 70'

T. Chawinga 27'

3/28/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · Quarter-finalsParc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W62%

×Draw21%

Häcken W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint Germain WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.92

Paris Saint Germain W

1.97

Häcken W

0.92

Paris Saint Germain W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

2.12

creates per match

0.91

0.92

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W

2.12

Häcken W

0.91

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W

0.92

Häcken W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw

83%

Paris Saint Germain W or Häcken W

79%

Draw or Häcken W

38%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+

37%

Häcken W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals

86%

Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals

58%

Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals

31%

Häcken W 1+ goals

60%

Häcken W 2+ goals

23%

Häcken W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)

78%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Häcken W away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.12 + Häcken W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.97

Häcken W attack 0.91 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more

62%

level

21%

Häcken W scores more

17%

Paris Saint Germain W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Katoto

Paris Saint Germain W · F

8.5

Match Events

27'

T. Chawinga↳ M. Katoto

65'

C. Larisey← F. Schröder

70'

K. Albert↳ J. Le Guilly

72'

K. Kosola← A. Bergström

72'

M. Nildén← M. Jusu Bah

74'

M. Katoto↳ S. Karchaoui

80'

A. Csiki← F. Curmark

80'

R. Grant← R. Kafaji

81'

M. Traoré← A. Vangsgaard

81'

L. Fazer← S. Baltimore

85'

T. Elimbi Gilbert← J. Le Guilly

90+2'

M. Folquet← T. Chawinga

90+2'

A. Ebayilin← S. Karchaoui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParisHäcken

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots5

4Corners0

6Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots5

10On Target2

6Off Target2

2Blocked1

13Inside Box2

5Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

629Total Passes334

565Accurate Passes271

90%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls9

0Offsides2