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Häcken W vs Paris Saint Germain W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Häcken W
Häcken W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
9/28/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundBravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Häcken W23%
×Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
1.19
Paris Saint Germain W
1.92

Paris Saint Germain W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

creates per match

Häcken W
1.08
Paris Saint Germain W
1.93

allows per match

Häcken W
1.92
Paris Saint Germain W
1.30

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
46%
Häcken W or Paris Saint Germain W
78%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
77%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
9%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
70%
Häcken W 2+ goals
33%
Häcken W 3+ goals
12%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
85%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
57%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
30%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 1.08 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Paris Saint Germain W attack 1.93 + Häcken W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Häcken W scores more
23%
level
22%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
54%

Paris Saint Germain W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Häcken W vs Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Häcken W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.