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Paris Saint Germain W vs Bayern Munich W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bayern Munich W
Bayern Munich W
11/23/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 2Stade Jean Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W49%
×Draw22%
Bayern Munich W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain W
1.91
Bayern Munich W
1.44

Paris Saint Germain W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W
2.12
Bayern Munich W
1.96

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W
0.92
Bayern Munich W
1.70

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par
Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Bayern Munich W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw
71%
Paris Saint Germain W or Bayern Munich W
78%
Draw or Bayern Munich W
51%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
27%
Bayern Munich W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
85%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
57%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
30%
Bayern Munich W 1+ goals
76%
Bayern Munich W 2+ goals
42%
Bayern Munich W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
62%
Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Bayern Munich W away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.12 + Bayern Munich W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.91

Bayern Munich W attack 1.96 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more
49%
level
22%
Bayern Munich W scores more
29%

Paris Saint Germain W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Paris Saint Germain W 0–1 Bayern Munich W

Bayern Munich W beat Paris Saint Germain W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Jean Bouin in Paris.