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Bayern Munich W vs Paris Saint Germain W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Bayern Munich W
Bayern Munich W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
1/30/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 6FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bayern Munich W48%
×Draw23%
Paris Saint Germain W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Munich W
1.80
Paris Saint Germain W
1.35

Bayern Munich W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bayern Munich W
2.30
Paris Saint Germain W
1.93

allows per match

Bayern Munich W
0.78
Paris Saint Germain W
1.30

finishing

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bayern Munich W or draw
71%
Bayern Munich W or Paris Saint Germain W
77%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
52%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+
26%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals
83%
Bayern Munich W 2+ goals
54%
Bayern Munich W 3+ goals
27%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
74%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
39%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)
62%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich W attack 2.30 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.80

Paris Saint Germain W attack 1.93 + Bayern Munich W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bayern Munich W scores more
48%
level
23%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
29%

Bayern Munich W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bayern Munich W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Bayern Munich W 2–2 Paris Saint Germain W

Bayern Munich W and Paris Saint Germain W drew 2-2 in UEFA Champions League Women on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1 in München.