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Paris Saint Germain vs Napoli — UEFA Champions League 2026

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Napoli
Napoli
Á. Di María 90+3'
Mário Rui 61' (OG)
D. Mertens 77'
L. Insigne 29'
10/24/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 3Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Paris Saint Germain54%
×Draw21%
Napoli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
2.08
Napoli
1.33

Paris Saint Germain creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.20
Napoli
1.28

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
1.38
Napoli
1.97

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.89scores more
Napoli-0.28scores less

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
76%
Paris Saint Germain or Napoli
79%
Draw or Napoli
46%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
32%
Napoli wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
87%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
61%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
34%
Napoli 1+ goals
74%
Napoli 2+ goals
38%
Napoli 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
69%
Napoli (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.97 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.20 + Napoli defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.08

Napoli attack 1.28 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
54%
level
21%
Napoli scores more
24%

Paris Saint Germain at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
NeymarParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · F
8.4

Match Events

5'
Marquinhos
9'
Dries Mertens
29'
L. Insigne↳ José Callejón
33'
Mário Rui
46'
T. Kehrer← Juan Bernat
53'
P. Zieliński← L. Insigne
61'
Mário RuiOwn goal
76'
J. Draxler← E. Cavani
77'
D. Mertens
81'
José Callejón
83'
M. Diaby← M. Verratti
84'
A. Milik← D. Mertens
86'
Nikola Maksimović
88'
M. Rog← José Callejón
90'
Julian Draxler
90'
David Ospina
90+3'
Á. Di María↳ J. Draxler

Possession

52%Paris

Shots

16Paris

Pass accuracy

51%Paris

Statistics

ParisNapoli
Overview
52%Possession48%
16Total Shots14
6Corners2
9Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots14
6On Target5
5Off Target8
5Blocked1
11Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
52%Possession48%
597Total Passes557
536Accurate Passes475
90%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
4Offsides3

UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint Germain 2–2 Napoli

Paris Saint Germain and Napoli drew 2-2 in UEFA Champions League on October 24, 2018.

Goals: L. Insigne (29'), Mário Rui (61' o.g.), D. Mertens (77'), Á. Di María (90+3').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.