Napoli 1–1 Paris Saint Germain: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Paris Saint Germain

L. Insigne 62' (pen)

Juan Bernat 45+2'

11/6/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 4Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Napoli43%

×Draw24%

Paris Saint Germain33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchParis Saint Germain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.39

Napoli

1.63

Paris Saint Germain

1.39

Napoli creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.86

creates per match

1.63

1.15

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Napoli

1.86

Paris Saint Germain

1.63

allows per match

Napoli

1.15

Paris Saint Germain

1.40

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Napoli-0.29scores less

Paris Saint Germain+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Paris Saint Germain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

67%

Napoli or Paris Saint Germain

76%

Draw or Paris Saint Germain

57%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

22%

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

80%

Napoli 2+ goals

48%

Napoli 3+ goals

22%

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

75%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

40%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

57%

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.40 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.86 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Paris Saint Germain attack 1.63 + Napoli defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Napoli scores more

43%

level

24%

Paris Saint Germain scores more

33%

Napoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

D. Mertens

Napoli · F

7.7

Match Events

29'

Kylian Mbappé

32'

Thilo Kehrer

45'

Fabián Ruiz

45+2'

Juan Bernat↳ K. Mbappé

62'

L. InsignePenalty

71'

P. Zieliński← Fabián Ruiz

73'

P. Kimpembe← T. Meunier

76'

E. Hysaj← N. Maksimović

77'

E. Cavani← Á. Di María

83'

A. Ounas← D. Mertens

89'

Marco Verratti

90'

Neymar

90+2'

E. Choupo-Moting← T. Kehrer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliParis

Overview

43%Possession57%

20Total Shots9

8Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots9

4On Target3

10Off Target2

6Blocked4

9Inside Box6

11Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

481Total Passes636

417Accurate Passes570

87%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Napoli vs Paris Saint Germain

Napoli and Paris Saint Germain drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League on November 6, 2018.

Goals: Juan Bernat (45+2'), L. Insigne (62' pen).

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadio San Paolo in Naples.

Napoli vs Paris Saint Germain — UEFA Champions League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Napoli vs Paris Saint Germain