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Paris Saint Germain vs Metz — Ligue 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Metz
Metz
12/20/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Paris Saint Germain70%
×Draw18%
Metz12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
2.33
Metz
0.84

Paris Saint Germain creates 177% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.39
Metz
0.82

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
0.86
Metz
2.26

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.07on par
Metz+0.18scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
88%
Paris Saint Germain or Metz
82%
Draw or Metz
30%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
47%
Metz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
90%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
67%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
41%
Metz 1+ goals
57%
Metz 2+ goals
21%
Metz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
85%
Metz (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.86 · 26 matches

Metz away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.39 + Metz defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.33

Metz attack 0.82 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
70%
level
18%
Metz scores more
12%

Paris Saint Germain at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Metz

Paris Saint Germain beat Metz 3-1 in Ligue 1 on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.