Metz 0–2 Paris Saint Germain: Result & Stats

Metz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Paris Saint Germain

Lee Kang-In 12'

Carlos Soler 7'

5/19/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 34Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Metz24%

×Draw24%

Paris Saint Germain52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetzExpected goals in this matchParis Saint Germain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.74

Metz

1.09

Paris Saint Germain

1.74

Paris Saint Germain creates 60% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 29 away

1.13

creates per match

2.08

1.40

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Metz

1.13

Paris Saint Germain

2.08

allows per match

Metz

1.40

Paris Saint Germain

1.06

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Metz-0.28scores less

Paris Saint Germain-0.08on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Paris Saint Germain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Metz or draw

48%

Metz or Paris Saint Germain

76%

Draw or Paris Saint Germain

76%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+

9%

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals

66%

Metz 2+ goals

30%

Metz 3+ goals

10%

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

82%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

52%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)

31%

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.13 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.08 + Metz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Metz scores more

24%

level

24%

Paris Saint Germain scores more

52%

Paris Saint Germain at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Lee Kang-In

Paris Saint Germain · F

8.7

Match Events

7'

Carlos Soler↳ Lee Kang-In

12'

Lee Kang-In↳ Marco Asensio

13'

Kang-in LeeGoal confirmed

44'

Nuno Mendes

62'

E. Mbappé← S. Mayulu

62'

R. Kolo Muani← Gonçalo Ramos

71'

M. Škriniar← Beraldo

74'

C. Sabaly← K. Van Den Kerkhof

78'

Y. Zague← Nuno Mendes

79'

Danley Jean Jacques

86'

Matthieu Udol

89'

A. Atta← D. Jean Jacques

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetzParis

Overview

24%Possession76%

10Total Shots20

0.87Expected Goals (xG)2.04

1Corners10

6Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots20

2On Target8

6Off Target9

2Blocked3

8Inside Box14

2Outside Box6

Passing

24%Possession76%

239Total Passes789

172Accurate Passes721

72%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

0.70Goals Prevented0.70

Discipline

6Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Metz vs Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Metz 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 19, 2024.

Goals: Carlos Soler (7'), Lee Kang-In (12').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (76%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.

Metz vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Metz vs Paris Saint Germain