Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Paris Saint Germain

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Liverpool

Neymar 37'

Juan Bernat 13'

J. Milner 45+1' (pen)

11/28/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 5Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Paris Saint Germain43%

×Draw24%

Liverpool33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint GermainExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.40

Paris Saint Germain

1.63

Liverpool

1.40

Paris Saint Germain creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.07

creates per match

1.39

1.42

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain

2.07

Liverpool

1.39

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain

1.42

Liverpool

1.20

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.63scores more

Liverpool+0.04on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw

67%

Paris Saint Germain or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

57%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

22%

Liverpool wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

80%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

48%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

22%

Liverpool 1+ goals

75%

Liverpool 2+ goals

41%

Liverpool 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

57%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.42 · 10 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.07 + Liverpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.63

Liverpool attack 1.39 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more

43%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

33%

Paris Saint Germain at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Milner

Liverpool · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

17'

24'

34'

37'

45+1'

J. MilnerPenalty

65'

Dani Alves← Á. Di María

65'

E. Choupo-Moting← E. Cavani

66'

N. Keïta← G. Wijnaldum

71'

D. Sturridge← Roberto Firmino

77'

X. Shaqiri← J. Milner

84'

85'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParisLiverpool

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots8

5Corners5

12Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots8

8On Target1

2Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

410Total Passes519

333Accurate Passes437

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls20

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1

UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Liverpool

Paris Saint Germain beat Liverpool 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on November 28, 2018.

Goals: Juan Bernat (13'), Neymar (37'), J. Milner (45+1' pen).

Liverpool controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.

Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool — UEFA Champions League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Liverpool