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Liverpool vs Paris Saint Germain — UEFA Champions League 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
Pens
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germainadvanced
Mohamed Salah 120+2' (pen)
D. Doué 120+7' (pen)
O. Dembélé 120+5' (pen), 12'
Gonçalo Ramos 120+3' (pen)
Vitinha 120+1' (pen)
3/11/2025UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Round of 16Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Liverpool64%
×Draw19%
Paris Saint Germain17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool
2.41
Paris Saint Germain
1.18

Liverpool creates 104% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Liverpool
3.39
Paris Saint Germain
1.54

allows per match

Liverpool
0.81
Paris Saint Germain
1.43

finishing

Liverpool-0.89scores less
Paris Saint Germain+0.28scores more

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw
83%
Liverpool or Paris Saint Germain
81%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
36%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+
42%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals
91%
Liverpool 2+ goals
69%
Liverpool 3+ goals
43%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
69%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
33%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)
79%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.81 · 6 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.43 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 3.39 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.41

Paris Saint Germain attack 1.54 + Liverpool defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Liverpool scores more
64%
level
19%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
17%

Liverpool at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
G. DonnarummaParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · G
8.6

Match Events

12'
O. Dembélé
46'
Marquinhos
67'
D. Doué← B. Barcola
73'
D. Núñez← Diogo Jota
73'
J. Quansah← T. Alexander-Arnold
90+2'
Alexis Mac Allister
90'
C. Jones← A. Mac Allister
90+2'
Beraldo← Marquinhos
90'
W. Zaïre-Emery← Fabián Ruiz
101'
Lee Kang-In← K. Kvaratskhelia
102'
C. Gakpo← L. Díaz
105'
H. Elliott← D. Szoboszlai
111'
W. Endō← I. Konaté
120+1'
Gonçalo Ramos← João Neves
120+1'
VitinhaPenalty
120+2'
Mohamed SalahPenalty
120+3'
Gonçalo RamosPenalty
120+4'
D. NúñezMissed penalty
120+5'
O. DembéléPenalty
120+6'
C. JonesMissed penalty
120+7'
D. DouéPenalty

Possession

46%Liverpool

Shots

19Liverpool

Pass accuracy

48%Liverpool

Statistics

LiverpoolParis
Overview
46%Possession54%
19Total Shots21
1.64Expected Goals (xG)2.56
12Corners6
14Fouls6
Shots
19Total Shots21
3On Target8
10Off Target5
6Blocked8
14Inside Box12
5Outside Box9
Passing
46%Possession54%
538Total Passes675
425Accurate Passes572
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
0.32Goals Prevented0.32
Discipline
14Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

UEFA Champions League: Liverpool 0–1 Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Liverpool 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on March 11, 2025.

Goals: O. Dembélé (12', 120+5' pen), Vitinha (120+1' pen), Mohamed Salah (120+2' pen), Gonçalo Ramos (120+3' pen), D. Doué (120+7' pen).

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (54%) and registered 21 shots to 19.

The match was played at Anfield in Liverpool.