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Paris Saint Germain vs Lille — Ligue 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Lille
Lille
R. Kolo Muani 80'
Alexsandro Ribeiro 17' (OG)
Gonçalo Ramos 10'
Y. Yazıcı 6'
2/10/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Paris Saint Germain55%
×Draw23%
Lille22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
1.85
Lille
1.09

Paris Saint Germain creates 70% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.39
Lille
1.32

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
0.86
Lille
1.31

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.07on par
Lille+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Lille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
78%
Paris Saint Germain or Lille
77%
Draw or Lille
45%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
31%
Lille wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
84%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
55%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
28%
Lille 1+ goals
66%
Lille 2+ goals
30%
Lille 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
71%
Lille (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.86 · 26 matches

Lille away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.39 + Lille defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lille attack 1.32 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
55%
level
23%
Lille scores more
22%

Paris Saint Germain at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
O. DembéléParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
Y. Yazıcı
10'
Gonçalo Ramos↳ O. Dembélé
16'
Benjamin André
17'
Alexsandro RibeiroOwn goal
32'
Ismaily
35'
Manuel Ugarte
52'
Alexsandro Ribeiro
62'
B. Barcola← O. Dembélé
62'
Vitinha← Fabián Ruiz
67'
J. David← B. André
67'
A. Ounas← E. Zhegrova
67'
R. Cabella← G. Gudmundsson
69'
A. Hakimi← L. Hernández
74'
Nordi Mukiele
74'
W. Zaïre-Emery← Gonçalo Ramos
80'
R. Kolo Muani↳ B. Barcola
81'
H. Haraldsson← Y. Yazıcı

Possession

52%Paris

Shots

16Paris

Pass accuracy

50%Paris

Statistics

ParisLille
Overview
52%Possession48%
16Total Shots10
2.83Expected Goals (xG)1.20
6Corners8
12Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots10
8On Target3
5Off Target3
3Blocked4
9Inside Box8
7Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
472Total Passes434
407Accurate Passes367
86%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Ligue 1: Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Lille

Paris Saint Germain beat Lille 3-1 in Ligue 1 on February 10, 2024.

Goals: Y. Yazıcı (6'), Gonçalo Ramos (10'), Alexsandro Ribeiro (17' o.g.), R. Kolo Muani (80').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.