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Lille vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1 2018

Lille
Lille
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
E. Zhegrova 78'
R. Kolo Muani 90+2'
B. Barcola 36'
Vitinha 33' (pen)
9/1/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Lille35%
×Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lille
1.42
Paris Saint Germain
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

Lille
1.77
Paris Saint Germain
2.08

allows per match

Lille
0.99
Paris Saint Germain
1.06

finishing

Lille-0.12scores less
Paris Saint Germain-0.08on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lille or draw
60%
Lille or Paris Saint Germain
76%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
65%

Winning margin

Lille wins by 2+
16%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lille 1+ goals
76%
Lille 2+ goals
41%
Lille 3+ goals
17%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
79%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
45%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lille (draw refunded)
47%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.99 · 26 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille attack 1.77 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.42

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.08 + Lille defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lille scores more
35%
level
24%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
40%

Paris Saint Germain at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
E. ZhegrovaLilleLille · F
8.5

Match Events

24'
Lucas Beraldo
31'
Alexsandro Ribeiro
33'
VitinhaPenalty
36'
B. Barcola↳ Marco Asensio
46'
N. Mukau← A. Gomes
46'
O. Sahraoui← H. Haraldsson
47'
Ngal'ayel Mukau
65'
T. Meunier← A. Mandi
65'
J. David← M. Bayo
65'
Fabián Ruiz← João Neves
65'
D. Doué← Marco Asensio
74'
R. Kolo Muani← O. Dembélé
74'
Lee Kang-In← B. Barcola
78'
E. Zhegrova↳ B. Diakité
83'
S. Mayulu← A. Hakimi
84'
Gianluigi Donnarumma
85'
R. Cabella← Tiago Santos
90+1'
Bafodé Diakité
90+2'
R. Kolo Muani↳ D. Doué

Possession

42%Lille

Shots

8Lille

Pass accuracy

49%Lille

Statistics

LilleParis
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots11
1.40Expected Goals (xG)2.60
3Corners1
9Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots11
4On Target7
4Off Target2
0Blocked2
6Inside Box11
2Outside Box0
Passing
42%Possession58%
422Total Passes611
359Accurate Passes542
85%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
0.53Goals Prevented0.53
Discipline
9Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Lille 3-1 in Ligue 1 on September 1, 2024.

Goals: Vitinha (33' pen), B. Barcola (36'), E. Zhegrova (78'), R. Kolo Muani (90+2').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq.