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Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre — Ligue 1 2026

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Le Havre
Le Havre
Gonçalo Ramos 50'
D. Doué 8'
I. Soumaré 60'
4/19/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Paris Saint Germain65%
×Draw20%
Le Havre15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
2.11
Le Havre
0.90

Paris Saint Germain creates 134% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.45
Le Havre
0.99

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
0.81
Le Havre
1.77

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.05on par
Le Havre-0.11scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Le Havre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
85%
Paris Saint Germain or Le Havre
80%
Draw or Le Havre
35%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
41%
Le Havre wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
88%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
62%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
35%
Le Havre 1+ goals
59%
Le Havre 2+ goals
23%
Le Havre 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
81%
Le Havre (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.81 · 24 matches

Le Havre away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.45 + Le Havre defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.11

Le Havre attack 0.99 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
65%
level
20%
Le Havre scores more
15%

Paris Saint Germain at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. GorgelinLe HavreLe Havre · G
8.9

Match Events

8'
D. Doué↳ B. Barcola
50'
Gonçalo Ramos↳ S. Mayulu
60'
I. Soumaré↳ Koka
61'
Vitinha← I. Mbaye
61'
Nuno Mendes← A. Hakimi
64'
Y. Kechta← Koka
64'
A. Ayew← M. Diawara
73'
João Neves← Lee Kang-In
73'
K. Kvaratskhelia← B. Barcola
79'
A. Joujou← É. Youté
79'
R. Ndiaye← I. Soumaré
81'
P. Kimpembe← D. Doué
90'
I. Housni← L. Nego

Possession

70%Paris

Shots

18Paris

Pass accuracy

53%Paris

Statistics

ParisLe
Overview
70%Possession30%
18Total Shots9
3.14Expected Goals (xG)0.45
7Corners3
7Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots9
11On Target1
5Off Target7
2Blocked1
15Inside Box4
3Outside Box5
Passing
70%Possession30%
789Total Passes316
733Accurate Passes258
93%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves9
1.76Goals Prevented1.76
Discipline
7Fouls10
1Offsides0

Ligue 1: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Le Havre

Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 2-1 in Ligue 1 on April 19, 2025.

Goals: D. Doué (8'), Gonçalo Ramos (50'), I. Soumaré (60').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.