Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1 2026

Le Havre
Le Havre
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
G. Lloris 48'
R. Kolo Muani 90' (pen)
B. Barcola 86'
O. Dembélé 84'
Lee Kang-In 3'
8/16/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Océane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Le Havre26%
×Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Le Havre
1.16
Paris Saint Germain
1.73

Paris Saint Germain creates 49% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Le Havre
1.25
Paris Saint Germain
2.06

allows per match

Le Havre
1.40
Paris Saint Germain
1.07

finishing

Le Havre-0.02on par
Paris Saint Germain-0.02on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Havre ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Le Havre or draw
49%
Le Havre or Paris Saint Germain
76%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
74%

Winning margin

Le Havre wins by 2+
10%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Le Havre 1+ goals
69%
Le Havre 2+ goals
32%
Le Havre 3+ goals
11%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
82%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
52%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Le Havre (draw refunded)
34%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Havre at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.40 · 22 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Havre attack 1.25 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.06 + Le Havre defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Le Havre scores more
26%
level
24%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
51%

Paris Saint Germain at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
VitinhaParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · M
8.2

Match Events

3'
Lee Kang-In↳ Gonçalo Ramos
15'
Étienne Youte Kinkoue
20'
R. Kolo Muani← Gonçalo Ramos
45+3'
Antoine Joujou
46'
João Neves← I. Mbaye
48'
G. Lloris↳ C. Opéri
54'
Josué CasimirGoal cancelled
71'
B. Barcola← Marco Asensio
71'
O. Dembélé← Lee Kang-In
71'
Marquinhos← Y. Zague
75'
S. Grandsir← R. Ndiaye
76'
S. Ngoura← A. Joujou
84'
O. Dembélé↳ João Neves
86'
B. Barcola↳ João Neves
87'
K. Diawara← Y. Kechta
88'
Gautier Lloris
90'
R. Kolo MuaniPenalty

Possession

24%Le

Shots

5Le

Pass accuracy

45%Le

Statistics

LeParis
Overview
24%Possession76%
5Total Shots15
0.21Expected Goals (xG)2.87
2Corners8
11Fouls9
Shots
5Total Shots15
2On Target10
1Off Target4
2Blocked1
3Inside Box13
2Outside Box2
Passing
24%Possession76%
252Total Passes824
189Accurate Passes770
75%Pass Accuracy93%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
-0.82Goals Prevented-0.82
Discipline
11Fouls9
3Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Ligue 1: Le Havre 1–4 Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 4-1 in Ligue 1 on August 16, 2024.

Goals: Lee Kang-In (3'), G. Lloris (48'), O. Dembélé (84'), B. Barcola (86'), R. Kolo Muani (90' pen).

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (76%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Océane in Le Havre.