Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Juventus — UEFA Champions League 2026

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Juventus
Juventus
9/6/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group H - 1Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Paris Saint Germain52%
×Draw22%
Juventus26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
2.04
Juventus
1.40

Paris Saint Germain creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.07
Juventus
1.39

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
1.42
Juventus
2.02

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.63scores more
Juventus+0.01on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
74%
Paris Saint Germain or Juventus
78%
Draw or Juventus
48%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
30%
Juventus wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
87%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
60%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
33%
Juventus 1+ goals
75%
Juventus 2+ goals
41%
Juventus 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
66%
Juventus (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.42 · 10 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.02 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.07 + Juventus defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.04

Juventus attack 1.39 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
52%
level
22%
Juventus scores more
26%

Paris Saint Germain at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain vs Juventus

Paris Saint Germain beat Juventus 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on September 6, 2022.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.