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Juventus vs Paris Saint Germain — UEFA Champions League 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
11/2/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group H - 6Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Juventus39%
×Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.53
Paris Saint Germain
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.91
Paris Saint Germain
2.00

allows per match

Juventus
0.96
Paris Saint Germain
1.16

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
63%
Juventus or Paris Saint Germain
76%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
61%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
19%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
78%
Juventus 2+ goals
45%
Juventus 3+ goals
20%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
77%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
43%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
51%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.91 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.00 + Juventus defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Juventus scores more
39%
level
24%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
37%

Juventus at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Juventus 1–2 Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Juventus 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.