Paris FC W vs Nantes W: Preview & Prediction

Paris FC W

Preview

19:00

Nantes W

9/5/2026

Feminine Division 1 · Round 1Stade Charlety

Big match

55%

Paris FC W

model favours

55%21%23%

Paris FC W score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Paris FC W55%

×Draw21%

Nantes W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FC WExpected goals in this matchNantes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.27

Paris FC W

2.05

Nantes W

1.27

Paris FC W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 23 away

2.06

creates per match

1.43

1.10

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Paris FC W

2.06

Nantes W

1.43

allows per match

Paris FC W

1.10

Nantes W

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Nantes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Nantes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw

77%

Paris FC W or Nantes W

79%

Draw or Nantes W

45%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+

33%

Nantes W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals

87%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

61%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

33%

Nantes W 1+ goals

72%

Nantes W 2+ goals

36%

Nantes W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

70%

Nantes W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.10 · 86 matches

Nantes W away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.06 + Nantes W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.05

Nantes W attack 1.43 + Paris FC W defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paris FC W scores more

55%

level

21%

Nantes W scores more

23%

Paris FC W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 18% of Paris FC W’s matches
Top-of-the-table clash — Paris FC W 2 vs Nantes W 4
Paris FC W win just 30% against the top half (vs 77% against the bottom)
Nantes W win just 17% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)