Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nantes W vs Paris FC W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Nantes W
Nantes W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
C. Robillard 89'
L. Khelifi 52'
L. Calba 27'
L. Azzaro 63' (pen)
10/3/2025Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 4Stade Marcel Saupin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nantes W29%
×Draw25%
Paris FC W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes W
1.16
Paris FC W
1.53

Paris FC W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 87 away

creates per match

Nantes W
1.18
Paris FC W
1.93

allows per match

Nantes W
1.14
Paris FC W
1.14

finishing

Nantes W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nantes W or draw
54%
Nantes W or Paris FC W
75%
Draw or Paris FC W
71%

Winning margin

Nantes W wins by 2+
12%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Nantes W 1+ goals
69%
Nantes W 2+ goals
32%
Nantes W 3+ goals
11%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
78%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
45%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nantes W (draw refunded)
39%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes W attack 1.18 + Paris FC W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Paris FC W attack 1.93 + Nantes W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nantes W scores more
29%
level
25%
Paris FC W scores more
46%

Paris FC W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. RobillardNantes WNantes W · F
8.0

Match Events

27'
L. Calba↳ J. Machart-Rabanne
29'
Melissa Bethi
34'
I. Marques← M. Chavas
41'
Anaële Le Moguédec
46'
T. Sissoko← C. Hocine
46'
K. Roche-Dufour← A. Le Moguedec
52'
L. Khelifi↳ J. Swierot
58'
R. Eloissaint← J. Machart-Rabanne
60'
Nelly Da Cruz Rodrigues
63'
L. AzzaroPenalty
69'
Lorena Azzaro
70'
J. Mossard← L. Khelifi
70'
C. Robillard← L. Calba
76'
N. Haheim← L. Azzaro
79'
J. Pasquereau← M. Bethi
83'
O. Picard← M. Garbino
89'
C. Robillard

Possession

37%Nantes

Shots

11Nantes

Pass accuracy

48%Nantes

Statistics

NantesParis
Overview
37%Possession63%
11Total Shots15
2Corners4
14Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots15
6On Target4
4Off Target9
1Blocked2
10Inside Box12
1Outside Box3
Passing
37%Possession63%
306Total Passes520
219Accurate Passes410
72%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Feminine Division 1: Nantes W 3–1 Paris FC W

Nantes W beat Paris FC W 3-1 in Feminine Division 1 on October 3, 2025.

Goals: L. Calba (27'), L. Khelifi (52'), L. Azzaro (63' pen), C. Robillard (89').

Paris FC W controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Marcel Saupin in Nantes.