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Nantes W vs Paris FC W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Nantes W
Nantes W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
11/2/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 6Stade Marcel-Saupin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nantes W29%
×Draw25%
Paris FC W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes W
1.16
Paris FC W
1.53

Paris FC W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 87 away

creates per match

Nantes W
1.18
Paris FC W
1.93

allows per match

Nantes W
1.14
Paris FC W
1.14

finishing

Nantes W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nantes W or draw
54%
Nantes W or Paris FC W
75%
Draw or Paris FC W
71%

Winning margin

Nantes W wins by 2+
12%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Nantes W 1+ goals
69%
Nantes W 2+ goals
32%
Nantes W 3+ goals
11%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
78%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
45%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nantes W (draw refunded)
39%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes W attack 1.18 + Paris FC W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Paris FC W attack 1.93 + Nantes W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nantes W scores more
29%
level
25%
Paris FC W scores more
46%

Paris FC W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
D. DavisParis FC WParis FC W · D
7.9

Match Events

58'
M. Bourdieu← M. Garbino
58'
M. Le Mouël← K. Korošec
62'
N. Vagre← D. Marcano
68'
K. Bussy← J. Dufour
70'
Théa Greboval
79'
T. Eninger← J. Mossard
79'
R. Éloissant← J. Rabanne
85'
L. Rageot← L. Fleury
85'
L. Storti← M. Cosson
90'
N. Dosso← G. Thiney

Possession

32%Nantes

Shots

7Nantes

Pass accuracy

43%Nantes

Statistics

NantesParis
Overview
32%Possession68%
7Total Shots18
1Corners4
6Fouls5
Shots
7Total Shots18
2On Target5
3Off Target8
2Blocked5
4Inside Box13
3Outside Box5
Passing
32%Possession68%
295Total Passes648
173Accurate Passes501
59%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls5
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Feminine Division 1: Nantes W 0–0 Paris FC W

Nantes W and Paris FC W drew 0-0 in Feminine Division 1 on November 2, 2024.

Paris FC W controlled possession (68%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Saupin in Nantes.