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Paris FC W vs Lille W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris FC W
Paris FC W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lille W
Lille W
9/15/2018Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 3Stade Sébastien-Charléty (Paris)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Paris FC W62%
×Draw20%
Lille W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC W
2.21
Lille W
1.13

Paris FC W creates 96% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 23 away

creates per match

Paris FC W
2.08
Lille W
1.17

allows per match

Paris FC W
1.09
Lille W
2.35

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par
Lille W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Lille W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw
81%
Paris FC W or Lille W
80%
Draw or Lille W
38%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+
39%
Lille W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals
89%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
65%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
38%
Lille W 1+ goals
68%
Lille W 2+ goals
31%
Lille W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)
77%
Lille W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

Lille W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.08 + Lille W defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.21

Lille W attack 1.17 + Paris FC W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Paris FC W scores more
62%
level
20%
Lille W scores more
19%

Paris FC W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Paris FC W 0–0 Lille W

Paris FC W and Lille W drew 0-0 in Feminine Division 1 on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Sébastien-Charléty (Paris).