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Lille W vs Paris FC W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lille W
Lille W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
9/16/2023Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 1Complexe Sportif Stadium 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lille W17%
×Draw20%
Paris FC W63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lille W
1.06
Paris FC W
2.22

Paris FC W creates 109% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 87 away

creates per match

Lille W
1.00
Paris FC W
1.94

allows per match

Lille W
2.50
Paris FC W
1.13

finishing

Lille W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lille W or draw
37%
Lille W or Paris FC W
80%
Draw or Paris FC W
83%

Winning margin

Lille W wins by 2+
6%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Lille W 1+ goals
65%
Lille W 2+ goals
29%
Lille W 3+ goals
9%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
89%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
65%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Lille W (draw refunded)
21%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille W attack 1.00 + Paris FC W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Paris FC W attack 1.94 + Lille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lille W scores more
17%
level
20%
Paris FC W scores more
63%

Paris FC W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Lille W 0–4 Paris FC W

Paris FC W beat Lille W 4-0 in Feminine Division 1 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Stadium 2 in Villeneuve d'Ascq.