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Paris FC W vs Häcken W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Paris FC W
Paris FC W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Häcken W
Häcken W
11/15/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 1Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Paris FC W54%
×Draw22%
Häcken W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC W
1.98
Häcken W
1.24

Paris FC W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Paris FC W
2.14
Häcken W
0.91

allows per match

Paris FC W
1.57
Häcken W
1.82

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par
Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Häcken W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw
76%
Paris FC W or Häcken W
78%
Draw or Häcken W
46%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+
32%
Häcken W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals
86%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
59%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
31%
Häcken W 1+ goals
71%
Häcken W 2+ goals
35%
Häcken W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)
70%
Häcken W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Häcken W away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.14 + Häcken W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Häcken W attack 0.91 + Paris FC W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Paris FC W scores more
54%
level
22%
Häcken W scores more
24%

Paris FC W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paris FC W vs Häcken W

Häcken W beat Paris FC W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.