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Häcken W vs Paris FC W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Häcken W
Häcken W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
1/24/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 5Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Häcken W34%
×Draw26%
Paris FC W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
1.24
Paris FC W
1.36

Paris FC W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Häcken W
1.08
Paris FC W
0.80

allows per match

Häcken W
1.92
Paris FC W
1.40

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
60%
Häcken W or Paris FC W
74%
Draw or Paris FC W
66%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
15%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
71%
Häcken W 2+ goals
35%
Häcken W 3+ goals
13%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
74%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
39%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
46%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 1.08 + Paris FC W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Paris FC W attack 0.80 + Häcken W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Häcken W scores more
34%
level
26%
Paris FC W scores more
40%

Paris FC W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Häcken W 0–0 Paris FC W

Häcken W and Paris FC W drew 0-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on January 24, 2024.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.