Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paris FC W vs Guingamp W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris FC W
Paris FC W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guingamp W
Guingamp W
J. Dufour 89'
G. Thiney 69' (pen)
10/14/2023Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 4Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Paris FC W65%
×Draw19%
Guingamp W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC W
2.17
Guingamp W
0.93

Paris FC W creates 133% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 73 away

creates per match

Paris FC W
2.08
Guingamp W
0.77

allows per match

Paris FC W
1.09
Guingamp W
2.25

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par
Guingamp W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Guingamp W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw
85%
Paris FC W or Guingamp W
81%
Draw or Guingamp W
35%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+
42%
Guingamp W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals
89%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
64%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
36%
Guingamp W 1+ goals
61%
Guingamp W 2+ goals
24%
Guingamp W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)
81%
Guingamp W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

Guingamp W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.25 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.08 + Guingamp W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Guingamp W attack 0.77 + Paris FC W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Paris FC W scores more
65%
level
19%
Guingamp W scores more
15%

Paris FC W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
K. KorošecParis FC WParis FC W · M
7.9

Match Events

27'
L. Teinturier← M. Léger
37'
Jeannette Yango
46'
M. Bourdieu← L. Ribadeira
46'
D. Corboz← C. Matéo
46'
M. N'Dongala← C. Ould Hocine
46'
M. Revelli← G. Kazadi
60'
J. Dufour← K. Bussy
60'
G. Thiney← L. Bogaert
69'
G. ThineyPenalty
76'
N. Richard← J. Yango
84'
M. Renard← L. Teinturier
84'
W. Pacaud← S. Cambot
87'
Alison Peniguel
89'
J. Dufour

Possession

63%Paris

Shots

23Paris

Pass accuracy

55%Paris

Statistics

ParisGuingamp
Overview
63%Possession37%
23Total Shots3
8Corners0
9Fouls11
Shots
23Total Shots3
13On Target1
9Off Target0
1Blocked2
13Inside Box2
10Outside Box1
Passing
63%Possession37%
426Total Passes259
346Accurate Passes169
81%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves11
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Feminine Division 1: Paris FC W 2–0 Guingamp W

Paris FC W beat Guingamp W 2-0 in Feminine Division 1 on October 14, 2023.

Goals: G. Thiney (69' pen), J. Dufour (89').

Paris FC W controlled possession (63%) and registered 23 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.