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Guingamp W vs Paris FC W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Guingamp W
Guingamp W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
K. Bussy 54'
G. Thiney 33', 31' (pen)
D. Corboz 28'
3/16/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 17Stade Centre Formation EAG 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Guingamp W24%
×Draw22%
Paris FC W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp W
1.23
Paris FC W
1.98

Paris FC W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 87 away

creates per match

Guingamp W
1.34
Paris FC W
1.94

allows per match

Guingamp W
2.03
Paris FC W
1.13

finishing

Guingamp W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Guingamp W or draw
45%
Guingamp W or Paris FC W
78%
Draw or Paris FC W
76%

Winning margin

Guingamp W wins by 2+
9%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Guingamp W 1+ goals
71%
Guingamp W 2+ goals
35%
Guingamp W 3+ goals
13%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
86%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
59%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Guingamp W (draw refunded)
30%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.03 · 76 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp W attack 1.34 + Paris FC W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Paris FC W attack 1.94 + Guingamp W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Guingamp W scores more
24%
level
22%
Paris FC W scores more
55%

Paris FC W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
G. ThineyParis FC WParis FC W · M
8.7

Match Events

10'
Alison Peniguel
28'
D. Corboz
31'
G. ThineyPenalty
33'
G. Thiney↳ C. Matéo
46'
A. Stárová← E. Guillois
46'
K. Bussy← C. Matéo
54'
K. Bussy↳ M. Le Mouël
59'
L. Bogaert← A. Abdullina
60'
T. Sissoko← G. Thiney
60'
K. Korošec← T. Greboval
65'
M. Léger← L. Teinturier
65'
Leidiane← A. Péniguel
74'
M. Bourdieu← L. Ribadeira
80'
A. Donnary← S. Cambot
80'
J. Yango← S. Daoudi

Possession

45%Guingamp

Shots

5Guingamp

Pass accuracy

46%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampParis
Overview
45%Possession55%
5Total Shots15
2Corners5
8Fouls8
Shots
5Total Shots15
2On Target7
1Off Target5
2Blocked3
2Inside Box11
3Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
362Total Passes441
251Accurate Passes351
69%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides5

Feminine Division 1: Guingamp W 0–4 Paris FC W

Paris FC W beat Guingamp W 4-0 in Feminine Division 1 on March 16, 2024.

Goals: D. Corboz (28'), G. Thiney (31' pen, 33'), K. Bussy (54').

Paris FC W controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Centre Formation EAG 1 in Pabu.