Paris FC W 0–0 Guingamp W: Result & Stats

Paris FC W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guingamp W

2/27/2021

Feminine Division 1 · Round 15Stade Robert Bobin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Paris FC W65%

×Draw19%

Guingamp W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FC WExpected goals in this matchGuingamp W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.93

Paris FC W

2.17

Guingamp W

0.93

Paris FC W creates 133% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 73 away

2.08

creates per match

0.77

1.09

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Paris FC W

2.08

Guingamp W

0.77

allows per match

Paris FC W

1.09

Guingamp W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Guingamp W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Guingamp W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw

85%

Paris FC W or Guingamp W

81%

Draw or Guingamp W

35%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+

42%

Guingamp W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals

89%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

64%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

36%

Guingamp W 1+ goals

61%

Guingamp W 2+ goals

24%

Guingamp W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

81%

Guingamp W (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

Guingamp W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.25 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.08 + Guingamp W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Guingamp W attack 0.77 + Paris FC W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Paris FC W scores more

65%

level

19%

Guingamp W scores more

15%

Paris FC W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

M. Le Mouel

39'

O. Jean-François← J. Soyer

61'

H. Mansuy← L. Sotier

66'

A. Soumahoro← D. Corboz

66'

A. Peniguel← M. Le Mouël

73'

C. Sow← L. Sällström

84'

M. Le Campion← S. Cambot

Paris

Guingamp

16

Durand

23

Alleway

19

Jezequel

2

▼

3

25

8

6

15

▼

Mouël

11

Fleury

9

▼

Cambot

40

Nnadozie

27

▼

10

19

7

22

23

8

▼

Corboz

20

▼

Sällström

17

Thiney

11

Matéo

Manager: S. Soubeyrand

39'▲O. Jean-François←▼J. Soyer

66'▲A. Soumahoro←▼D. Corboz

73'▲C. Sow←▼L. Sällström

Paris FC W substitutes

12Jean-François33Soumahoro18Sow1Pecharman28Catala2Hocine3Riehl

Manager: F. Biancalani

61'▲H. Mansuy←▼L. Sotier

66'▲A. Peniguel←▼M. Le Mouël

84'▲M. Le Campion←▼S. Cambot

Guingamp W substitutes

13Mansuy20Peniguel33Campion29Coquil10Traore30Page5Lukas34Salomé