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Paris FC vs Concarneau — Ligue 2 2018

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Concarneau
Concarneau
8/26/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Paris FC49%
×Draw27%
Concarneau24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.40
Concarneau
0.89

Paris FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 19 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.42
Concarneau
0.84

allows per match

Paris FC
0.94
Concarneau
1.37

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Concarneau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
76%
Paris FC or Concarneau
73%
Draw or Concarneau
51%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
24%
Concarneau wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
75%
Paris FC 2+ goals
41%
Paris FC 3+ goals
17%
Concarneau 1+ goals
59%
Concarneau 2+ goals
22%
Concarneau 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
67%
Concarneau (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 127 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.42 + Concarneau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Concarneau attack 0.84 + Paris FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paris FC scores more
49%
level
27%
Concarneau scores more
24%

Paris FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Paris FC 3–0 Concarneau

Paris FC beat Concarneau 3-0 in Ligue 2 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.