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Concarneau vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Concarneau
Concarneau
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
2/17/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concarneau32%
×Draw27%
Paris FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concarneau
1.15
Paris FC
1.34

Paris FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

creates per match

Concarneau
1.21
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Concarneau
1.63
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Concarneau+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concarneau ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Concarneau or draw
59%
Concarneau or Paris FC
73%
Draw or Paris FC
68%

Winning margin

Concarneau wins by 2+
13%
Paris FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Concarneau 1+ goals
68%
Concarneau 2+ goals
32%
Concarneau 3+ goals
11%
Paris FC 1+ goals
74%
Paris FC 2+ goals
39%
Paris FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Concarneau (draw refunded)
44%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concarneau at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concarneau attack 1.21 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Concarneau defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Concarneau scores more
32%
level
27%
Paris FC scores more
41%

Paris FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Concarneau 2–2 Paris FC

Concarneau and Paris FC drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Caen.