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Paris FC vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Caen
Caen
3/31/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Paris FC48%
×Draw26%
Caen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.48
Caen
1.02

Paris FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 107 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.42
Caen
1.10

allows per match

Paris FC
0.94
Caen
1.53

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
74%
Paris FC or Caen
74%
Draw or Caen
52%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
24%
Caen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
77%
Paris FC 2+ goals
43%
Paris FC 3+ goals
19%
Caen 1+ goals
64%
Caen 2+ goals
27%
Caen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
65%
Caen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 127 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.42 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Caen attack 1.10 + Paris FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Paris FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Caen scores more
26%

Paris FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paris FC vs Caen

Paris FC beat Caen 4-2 in Ligue 2 on March 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.