Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Caen vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Caen
Caen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
4/15/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 31Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Caen39%
×Draw29%
Paris FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caen
1.17
Paris FC
1.02

Caen creates 15% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 128 away

creates per match

Caen
1.25
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Caen
1.00
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Caen+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Caen or draw
68%
Caen or Paris FC
71%
Draw or Paris FC
61%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+
17%
Paris FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals
69%
Caen 2+ goals
33%
Caen 3+ goals
11%
Paris FC 1+ goals
64%
Paris FC 2+ goals
27%
Paris FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)
55%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 107 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.25 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Caen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Caen scores more
39%
level
29%
Paris FC scores more
32%

Caen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Caen 3–1 Paris FC

Caen beat Paris FC 3-1 in Ligue 2 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Caen.