Paris FC 1–0 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Paris FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bastia

P. Hamel 20'

4/19/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 31Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Paris FC46%

×Draw27%

Bastia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FCExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.98

Paris FC

1.38

Bastia

0.98

Paris FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 91 away

1.42

creates per match

1.03

0.94

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Paris FC

1.42

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Paris FC

0.94

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw

73%

Paris FC or Bastia

73%

Draw or Bastia

54%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+

22%

Bastia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals

75%

Paris FC 2+ goals

40%

Paris FC 3+ goals

16%

Bastia 1+ goals

62%

Bastia 2+ goals

26%

Bastia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)

63%

Bastia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 127 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.42 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bastia attack 1.03 + Paris FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paris FC scores more

46%

level

27%

Bastia scores more

27%

Paris FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Lopez

Paris FC · M

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Alimami Gory

14'

J. López← A. Gory

20'

P. Hamel↳ M. Lopez

57'

M. Tourraine← M. Cafaro

58'

C. Inao Oulaï← J. Janneh

60'

60'

68'

75'

75'

75'

S. Chergui← V. Marchetti

76'

T. Meynadier← F. Bohnert

77'

83'

87'

90+6'

90+1'

T. Ollila← O. Sissoko

90+1'

M. Blé← J. Sebas

90+1'

J. Maggiotti← T. Ducrocq

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParisBastia

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots9

4Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target4

3Off Target2

4Blocked3

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

399Total Passes389

324Accurate Passes324

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Ligue 2: Paris FC 1–0 Bastia

Paris FC beat Bastia 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 19, 2025.

Goals: P. Hamel (20').

Paris FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.

Paris FC vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Paris FC 1–0 Bastia