Bastia 1–1 Paris FC: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bastia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paris FC

M. Alfarela 45+2' (pen)

T. Kolodziejczak 29'

5/17/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Bastia39%

×Draw30%

Paris FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BastiaExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.99

Bastia

1.14

Paris FC

0.99

Bastia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 128 away

1.19

creates per match

1.05

0.92

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Bastia

1.19

Paris FC

1.05

allows per match

Bastia

0.92

Paris FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Paris FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bastia or draw

69%

Bastia or Paris FC

70%

Draw or Paris FC

61%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+

16%

Paris FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals

68%

Bastia 2+ goals

32%

Bastia 3+ goals

11%

Paris FC 1+ goals

63%

Paris FC 2+ goals

26%

Paris FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)

55%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 91 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.19 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Bastia defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bastia scores more

39%

level

30%

Paris FC scores more

31%

Bastia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

F. Bianchini

Bastia · M

7.7

Match Events

26'

Timothée Kolodziejczak

29'

T. Kolodziejczak↳ C. Mandouki

43'

A. Camara← I. Kebbal

45+2'

M. AlfarelaPenalty

46'

J. Janneh← T. Ducrocq

65'

F. Tomi← F. Bohnert

66'

G. Charbonnier← F. Bianchini

67'

A. Gory← A. Jabbari

67'

S. Chergui← C. Mandouki

74'

Migouel Alfarela

78'

Benjamin Santelli

82'

M. Loubatières← M. Alfarela

82'

M. Siby← C. Vincent

82'

J. López← L. Doucet

83'

T. Ollila← J. Gaudin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BastiaParis

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots7

7Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots7

4On Target3

5Off Target3

7Blocked1

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

349Total Passes531

286Accurate Passes454

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Ligue 2: Bastia 1–1 Paris FC

Bastia and Paris FC drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: T. Kolodziejczak (29'), M. Alfarela (45+2' pen).

Paris FC controlled possession (59%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.

Bastia vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Bastia 1–1 Paris FC