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Paris FC vs Angers — Ligue 2 2018

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Angers
Angers
I. Kebbal 83'
Y. Valery 79' (OG)
A. Jabbari 18'
P. Capelle 41'
4/27/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 35Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Paris FC40%
×Draw27%
Angers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.30
Angers
1.14

Paris FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 28 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.43
Angers
1.32

allows per match

Paris FC
0.96
Angers
1.18

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Angers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Angers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
67%
Paris FC or Angers
73%
Draw or Angers
60%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
18%
Angers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
73%
Paris FC 2+ goals
37%
Paris FC 3+ goals
14%
Angers 1+ goals
68%
Angers 2+ goals
32%
Angers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
55%
Angers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 118 matches

Angers away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.43 + Angers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Angers attack 1.32 + Paris FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paris FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Angers scores more
33%

Paris FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. KebbalParis FCParis FC · M
8.5

Match Events

18'
A. Jabbari↳ K. Dabila
19'
Ayoub Jabbari
41'
P. Capelle↳ F. El Melali
56'
L. Rao-Lisoa← J. Kalumba
61'
E. Lepaul← Z. Ould Khaled
65'
V. Marchetti← L. Doucet
70'
Ilan Kebbal
79'
Y. ValeryOwn goal
80'
A. Hunou← F. El Melali
80'
Y. Belkhdim← P. Capelle
83'
I. Kebbal
86'
J. López← N. Dicko
86'
T. Ollila← J. Gaudin
90+1'
P. Lasne← K. Dabila
90'
L. Diaby-Fadiga← I. Kebbal

Possession

55%Paris

Shots

15Paris

Pass accuracy

51%Paris

Statistics

ParisAngers
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots10
3Corners8
13Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots10
7On Target4
6Off Target2
2Blocked4
11Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
468Total Passes380
402Accurate Passes317
86%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Paris FC vs Angers

Paris FC beat Angers 3-1 in Ligue 2 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: A. Jabbari (18'), P. Capelle (41'), Y. Valery (79' o.g.), I. Kebbal (83').

Paris FC controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.