Angers 2–0 Paris FC: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Angers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Paris FC

J. Bahoya 90+4'

L. Diony 33'

9/2/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Raymond-Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Angers45%

×Draw28%

Paris FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AngersExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.99

Angers

1.35

Paris FC

0.99

Angers creates 36% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 118 away

1.61

creates per match

1.08

0.89

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Angers

1.61

Paris FC

1.08

allows per match

Angers

0.89

Paris FC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angers+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Paris FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Angers or draw

73%

Angers or Paris FC

72%

Draw or Paris FC

55%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+

21%

Paris FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals

74%

Angers 2+ goals

39%

Angers 3+ goals

15%

Paris FC 1+ goals

63%

Paris FC 2+ goals

26%

Paris FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)

62%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 1.61 + Paris FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Paris FC attack 1.08 + Angers defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Angers scores more

45%

level

28%

Paris FC scores more

27%

Angers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Angers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Y. Fofana

Angers · G

7.5

Match Events

31'

L. Diaby-Fadiga← P. Hamel

33'

35'

45'

62'

64'

B. Mendy← J. Lopy

66'

J. López← A. Camara

66'

A. Gory← J. Gaudin

72'

J. Bahoya← L. Diony

81'

F. El Melali← L. Rao-Lisoa

82'

Y. Demoncy← C. Mandouki

82'

L. Gueye← K. Dabila

90+4'

J. Bahoya↳ F. El Melali

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AngersParis

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots9

5Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target3

5Off Target5

2Blocked1

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

427Total Passes487

370Accurate Passes419

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1