Pardubice 2–1 Vysočina Jihlava: Result & Stats

Pardubice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vysočina Jihlava

M. Hlavatý 10'

P. Černý 5'

L. Zoubele 57' (pen)

6/29/2020

FNL · Round 27Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pardubice65%

×Draw21%

Vysočina Jihlava14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PardubiceExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.80

Pardubice

1.98

Vysočina Jihlava

0.80

Pardubice creates 147% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 104 away

2.27

creates per match

1.14

0.47

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Pardubice

2.27

Vysočina Jihlava

1.14

allows per match

Pardubice

0.47

Vysočina Jihlava

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Vysočina Jihlava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw

86%

Pardubice or Vysočina Jihlava

79%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava

35%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+

40%

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals

86%

Pardubice 2+ goals

59%

Pardubice 3+ goals

31%

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals

55%

Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals

19%

Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)

82%

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Vysočina Jihlava away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 2.27 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.14 + Pardubice defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Pardubice scores more

65%

level

21%

Vysočina Jihlava scores more

14%

Pardubice at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

P. Černý

10'

M. Hlavatý

19'

V. Křišťál← K. Pojezný

26'

T. Solil

36'

Ewerton

36'

J. Jerabek

46'

L. Arroyo← S. Klobása

49'

J. Fortelny

57'

L. ZoubelePenalty

58'

Cadu← Ewerton

59'

L. Pfeifer← P. Černý

60'

W. Diouf

62'

R. Mikus

74'

T. Smejkal← L. Zoubele

74'

J. Rezek← J. Fortelný

80'

M. Koubek← F. Shudeiwa

85'

R.

86'

F. Čihák← T. Solil

87'

R.

90'

T. Smejkal

90+4'

E. Tischler← M. Hlavatý

Pardubice

Vysočina

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hlavatý

▼

Ewerton

▼

Solil

⚽

▼

Černý

Zifčák

Manager: J. Krejčí

58'▲Cadu←▼Ewerton

59'▲L. Pfeifer←▼P. Černý

86'▲F. Čihák←▼T. Solil

90+4'▲E. Tischler←▼M. Hlavatý

Pardubice substitutes

CaduPfeiferČihákTischler

Manager: R. Kučera

19'▲V. Křišťál←▼K. Pojezný

46'▲L. Arroyo←▼S. Klobása

74'▲T. Smejkal←▼L. Zoubele

74'▲J. Rezek←▼J. Fortelný

80'▲M. Koubek←▼F. Shudeiwa

Vysočina Jihlava substitutes

KřišťálArroyoSmejkalRezekKoubek

FNL: Pardubice 2–1 Vysočina Jihlava

Pardubice beat Vysočina Jihlava 2-1 in FNL on June 29, 2020.

Goals: P. Černý (5'), M. Hlavatý (10'), L. Zoubele (57' pen).

The match was played at Stadion K Vinici in Pardubice.

Pardubice vs Vysočina Jihlava — FNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FNL: Pardubice 2–1 Vysočina Jihlava