Pardubice 1–2 Slovan Liberec: Result & Stats

Pardubice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Slovan Liberec

3/27/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club FriendlyStadion Pod Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pardubice42%

×Draw26%

Slovan Liberec32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PardubiceExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.19

Pardubice

1.42

Slovan Liberec

1.19

Pardubice creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

1.47

creates per match

1.50

0.87

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Pardubice

1.47

Slovan Liberec

1.50

allows per match

Pardubice

0.87

Slovan Liberec

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par

Slovan Liberec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Slovan Liberec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw

68%

Pardubice or Slovan Liberec

74%

Draw or Slovan Liberec

58%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+

20%

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals

76%

Pardubice 2+ goals

41%

Pardubice 3+ goals

17%

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

70%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

33%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)

57%

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.47 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Slovan Liberec attack 1.50 + Pardubice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pardubice scores more

42%

level

26%

Slovan Liberec scores more

32%

Pardubice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff