Pardubice 1–1 Slovan Liberec: Result & Stats

Pardubice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slovan Liberec

12/14/2024

Czech Liga · Round 19CFIG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pardubice38%

×Draw27%

Slovan Liberec35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PardubiceExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Pardubice

1.29

Slovan Liberec

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 118 away

1.16

creates per match

1.14

1.27

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Pardubice

1.16

Slovan Liberec

1.14

allows per match

Pardubice

1.27

Slovan Liberec

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par

Slovan Liberec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Slovan Liberec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw

65%

Pardubice or Slovan Liberec

73%

Draw or Slovan Liberec

62%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+

17%

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals

72%

Pardubice 2+ goals

37%

Pardubice 3+ goals

14%

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

70%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

34%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)

53%

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Slovan Liberec attack 1.14 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pardubice scores more

38%

level

27%

Slovan Liberec scores more

35%

Pardubice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff