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Pardubice vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Pardubice
Pardubice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
2/15/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 22Stadion Arnosta Kostala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pardubice42%
×Draw26%
FK Jablonec32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice
1.41
FK Jablonec
1.19

Pardubice creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 122 away

creates per match

Pardubice
1.16
FK Jablonec
1.11

allows per match

Pardubice
1.27
FK Jablonec
1.66

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par
FK Jablonec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw
68%
Pardubice or FK Jablonec
74%
Draw or FK Jablonec
58%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+
20%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals
76%
Pardubice 2+ goals
41%
Pardubice 3+ goals
17%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
70%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
33%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)
57%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + FK Jablonec defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.41

FK Jablonec attack 1.11 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pardubice scores more
42%
level
26%
FK Jablonec scores more
32%

Pardubice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Pardubice 0–2 FK Jablonec

FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 2-0 in Czech Liga on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Pardubice.