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FK Jablonec vs Pardubice — Czech Liga 2019

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Pardubice
Pardubice
9/14/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 8Stadion Strelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

FK Jablonec53%
×Draw24%
Pardubice23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
1.72
Pardubice
1.04

FK Jablonec creates 65% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 106 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
1.61
Pardubice
1.05

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.02
Pardubice
1.82

finishing

FK Jablonec+0.00on par
Pardubice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Pardubice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
77%
FK Jablonec or Pardubice
76%
Draw or Pardubice
47%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
29%
Pardubice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
82%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
51%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
25%
Pardubice 1+ goals
65%
Pardubice 2+ goals
28%
Pardubice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
70%
Pardubice (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 122 matches

Pardubice away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.61 + Pardubice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Pardubice attack 1.05 + FK Jablonec defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
53%
level
24%
Pardubice scores more
23%

FK Jablonec at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: FK Jablonec 3–2 Pardubice

FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 3-2 in Czech Liga on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Strelnice in Jablonec nad Nisou.