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Pardubice U19 vs Frýdek-Místek U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
A. Broz 60', 48'
F. Hoffman 15'
J. Flaska 5'
9/16/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 7Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pardubice U1964%
×Draw19%
Frýdek-Místek U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice U19
2.33
Frýdek-Místek U19
1.11

Pardubice U19 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pardubice U19
1.80
Frýdek-Místek U19
0.87

allows per match

Pardubice U19
1.35
Frýdek-Místek U19
2.87

finishing

Pardubice U19+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pardubice U19 or draw
83%
Pardubice U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19
81%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19
36%

Winning margin

Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
42%
Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pardubice U19 1+ goals
90%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
67%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
41%
Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
67%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
30%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice U19 attack 1.80 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.33

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pardubice U19 scores more
64%
level
19%
Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
17%

Pardubice U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pardubice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. Flaska
15'
F. Hoffman
48'
A. Broz
60'
A. Broz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pardubice U19 vs Frýdek-Místek U19

Pardubice U19 beat Frýdek-Místek U19 4-0 in 1. Liga U19 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: J. Flaska (5'), F. Hoffman (15'), A. Broz (48', 60').

The match was played at Stadion K Vinici in Pardubice.