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Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Pardubice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
A. Imider 79'
O. Kabele 67', 40'
M. Firbacher 55'
F. Hoffman 6'
4/13/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 22Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frýdek-Místek U1938%
×Draw26%
Pardubice U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.36
Pardubice U19
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.07
Pardubice U19
1.53

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.13
Pardubice U19
1.65

finishing

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par
Pardubice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek U19 ↓

Pardubice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek U19 or draw
64%
Frýdek-Místek U19 or Pardubice U19
74%
Draw or Pardubice U19
62%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
17%
Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
74%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
39%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
16%
Pardubice U19 1+ goals
74%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
38%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Pardubice U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 1.07 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

Pardubice U19 attack 1.53 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
38%
level
26%
Pardubice U19 scores more
36%

Frýdek-Místek U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
F. Hoffman
40'
O. Kabele
55'
M. Firbacher
67'
O. Kabele
79'
A. Imider

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Frýdek-Místek U19 1–4 Pardubice U19

Pardubice U19 beat Frýdek-Místek U19 4-1 in 1. Liga U19 on April 13, 2024.

Goals: F. Hoffman (6'), O. Kabele (40', 67'), M. Firbacher (55'), A. Imider (79').

The match was played at Stadion Stovky in Frýdek-Místek.