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Pardubice II vs Mladá Boleslav II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Pardubice II
Pardubice II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mladá Boleslav II
Mladá Boleslav II
11/15/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 15Stadion Pod Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Pardubice II43%
×Draw23%
Mladá Boleslav II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice II
1.70
Mladá Boleslav II
1.46

Pardubice II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

Pardubice II
1.70
Mladá Boleslav II
1.43

allows per match

Pardubice II
1.50
Mladá Boleslav II
1.70

finishing

Pardubice II+0.00on par
Mladá Boleslav II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice II ↓

Mladá Boleslav II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pardubice II or draw
67%
Pardubice II or Mladá Boleslav II
77%
Draw or Mladá Boleslav II
57%

Winning margin

Pardubice II wins by 2+
23%
Mladá Boleslav II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pardubice II 1+ goals
82%
Pardubice II 2+ goals
51%
Pardubice II 3+ goals
24%
Mladá Boleslav II 1+ goals
77%
Mladá Boleslav II 2+ goals
43%
Mladá Boleslav II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pardubice II (draw refunded)
57%
Mladá Boleslav II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.50 · 82 matches

Mladá Boleslav II away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.70 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice II attack 1.70 + Mladá Boleslav II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

Mladá Boleslav II attack 1.43 + Pardubice II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pardubice II scores more
43%
level
23%
Mladá Boleslav II scores more
33%

Pardubice II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pardubice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pardubice II vs Mladá Boleslav II

Pardubice II beat Mladá Boleslav II 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Vinici in Pardubice.