Mladá Boleslav II 2–1 Pardubice II: Result & Stats

Mladá Boleslav II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Pardubice II

3/1/2026

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 32Lokotrans Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Mladá Boleslav II48%

×Draw24%

Pardubice II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladá Boleslav IIExpected goals in this matchPardubice II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.25

Mladá Boleslav II

1.72

Pardubice II

1.25

Mladá Boleslav II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

1.49

creates per match

1.18

1.32

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav II

1.49

Pardubice II

1.18

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav II

1.32

Pardubice II

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladá Boleslav II+0.00on par

Pardubice II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav II ↓

Pardubice II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav II or draw

72%

Mladá Boleslav II or Pardubice II

76%

Draw or Pardubice II

52%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav II wins by 2+

26%

Pardubice II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav II 1+ goals

82%

Mladá Boleslav II 2+ goals

51%

Mladá Boleslav II 3+ goals

25%

Pardubice II 1+ goals

71%

Pardubice II 2+ goals

36%

Pardubice II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav II (draw refunded)

63%

Pardubice II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

Pardubice II away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.95 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav II attack 1.49 + Pardubice II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.72

Pardubice II attack 1.18 + Mladá Boleslav II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mladá Boleslav II scores more

48%

level

24%

Pardubice II scores more

28%

Mladá Boleslav II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff