Pardubice II 2–1 Bohemians 1905 II: Result & Stats

Pardubice II

FT

2 – 1

Bohemians 1905 II

10/17/2021

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 12Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Pardubice II45%

×Draw25%

Bohemians 1905 II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pardubice IIExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.20

Pardubice II

1.55

Bohemians 1905 II

1.20

Pardubice II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 20 away

1.70

creates per match

0.90

1.50

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Pardubice II

1.70

Bohemians 1905 II

0.90

allows per match

Pardubice II

1.50

Bohemians 1905 II

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice II+0.00on par

Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice II ↓

Bohemians 1905 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pardubice II or draw

70%

Pardubice II or Bohemians 1905 II

75%

Draw or Bohemians 1905 II

55%

Winning margin

Pardubice II wins by 2+

23%

Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pardubice II 1+ goals

79%

Pardubice II 2+ goals

46%

Pardubice II 3+ goals

20%

Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals

70%

Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals

34%

Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pardubice II (draw refunded)

61%

Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.50 · 82 matches

Bohemians 1905 II away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice II attack 1.70 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bohemians 1905 II attack 0.90 + Pardubice II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pardubice II scores more

45%

level

25%

Bohemians 1905 II scores more

30%

Pardubice II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pardubice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff